Winchester, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

788
FXUS65 KVEF 030927
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
127 AM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist areawide
through next weekend. Winds will also generally remain light, with
the exception along the Colorado River Valley where gusty
northerly winds will develop each afternoon. Late in the weekend
into early next week, there may finally be a change in the pattern
as a system dives southeastward out of western Canada, which could
bring cooler temperatures and increased winds to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Thursday night.

This morning is pretty similar to the last few we`ve had, with
light winds for most and temperatures on their way to bottoming
out in the 20s and 30s in the mountains and the 40s and 50s
elsewhere. These lows are several degrees above normal, with
radiational cooling inhibited by the seemingly ever-present high
clouds we`ve had the past several days. These clouds are
associated with a fetch of subtropical moisture being routed
around a large low southwest of California that continues
translating slowly to the east-northeast. The broader-scale upper
pattern consists of a broad trough across the CONUS east of the
Rockies, with ridging over the West Coast, undercut by the
aforementioned low. Deterministic and ensemble guidance have been
and remain in good agreement in a blocking pattern setting up over
the western third of the CONUS as the low moves inland later
today and Wednesday, with an inland ridge developing over the
Pacific Northwest, to the north of this system. This Rex block
will keep sensible weather pretty stagnant across southern Nevada,
southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona, with continued
above normal temperatures, mainly light winds, and dry
conditions, even as the low traverses the region Wednesday and
Thursday. Given the prevailing northerly wind direction, however,
elevated and at least intermittently gusty winds will continue
through the Lower Colorado River Valley in the vicinity of
Laughlin- Bullhead City and Lake Mohave. Fortunately, winds will
remain below Advisory criteria, but will still likely produce
waves around 1 to 2 feet on the lake, especially during the
afternoons. Those who aren`t quite ready for winter and cold
should be enjoying this first week of December, which certainly
doesn`t feel like "winter" at all.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Monday.

A ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the region for
Friday and Saturday, however a weak shortwave will slide through
the mean anticyclonic flow into southern California. There is no
substantial moisture in place so this feature will come through
dry, however it will kick up winds down the Colorado River Valley.
Currently, NBM shows a 50% chance for wind gusts on Friday over
40 MPH isolated to around the Laughlin area and then low (20% or
less) probabilities elsewhere. Will need to monitor for change in
the forecast for boating impacts due to winds and waves,
especially as we enter the hi-res domain, but in general
widespread impacts are not expected with this feature.

After another period where ridging builds back east into the
region late Saturday and Sunday, another bigger system will move
through the mean northwest flow Monday into early next week.
There is significant difference among long range ensembles with
how this system develops with some of the models digging it all
the way south into the region as a stronger trough while other
models keep it to our north and are overall weaker with the
trough. The exact set up of this trough will play a roll the wind
and temperature forecast, precipitation is not likely with any
solution as the trajectory of the system is a dry one with little
to no moisture. The NBM currently shows a 30%-40% probability for
wind impacts with gusts over 40 MPH on Monday with higher
probabilities of 50%-70% down the Colorado River Valley. This is
reasonable for the moment given the uncertainty with the system
and winds could be a concern if the system digs south, though
changes up or down in the potential for wind impacts are likely
before early next week. The other thing to watch will be
temperatures. Above normal temperatures are likely through Sunday,
but then there is a large spread in the possible temperatures for
Monday through early next week due to the uncertainty with the
incoming trough. If the system digs this far south and the center
of the low moves through the region, colder than normal
temperatures are not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Diurnal winds with speeds of less than
10 knots are expected through tomorrow evening. Southwest winds
overnight will shift to the northeast after 18z, but remain under 7
knots through the afternoon. Similar wind conditions are expected
Wednesday. SCT to BKN high clouds into Wednesday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Diurnal winds with speeds of less than 10 knots are
expected through tomorrow evening at KBIH, KDAG, and the Las Vegas
Valley sites. Northerly winds of over 10 knots with gusts of 15 to
25 knots are expected along the Colorado River Valley today and
Wednesday, which includes KEED and KIFP. SCT-BKN high clouds will
remain over the area into Wednesday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Phillipson
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Gorelow

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